The Scaling Paradox
The scaling up of frontier AI models has been a huge success. But the scaling laws that inspired this rush actually show extremely poor returns to scale. What’s going on?

The Precipice Revisited
How has the existential risk landscape changed in the 4 years since The Precipice came out?

On the Value of Advancing Progress
I show how a standard argument for advancing progress is extremely sensitive to how humanity’s story eventually ends.

Robust Longterm Comparisons
The choice of discount rate is crucially important when comparing options that could affect our entire future. Except when it isn’t.

Casting the Decisive Vote
An elegant proof that unless the election is a foregone conclusion, the chance your vote decides the whole thing can’t be much lower than one in the number of voters.

A Child’s Plaything
What a simple toy could tell the past about their future.

The Timing of Labour Aimed at Reducing Existential Risk
Is it better to work on risks close to when they would occur, or as soon as possible?

Remembering Peter Eckersley
A eulogy for Peter.